The results from the survey of the managers in agricultural sector allow to expect in II quarter 2000 a growth in production output of cattle breeding sub-sector (+17%). This makes to expect the same tendency in sales of cattle-breeding production in internal market In respect of plant-growing the tendency is reverse, e.g. overall recession of sales at internal market.

The most considerable growth in the output and sales in cattle-breeding sub-sector is expected by public enterprises (+38% and +26% for the output and sales, respectively). The collective enterprises expect the slowest rates of growth (+14% and +18%, respectively). As regards private enterprises, the expectations with the latter are far more moderate than with public ones, although quite optimistic (+27% and +24%).

The respondents' expectations concerning financial performance at own company in II quarter 2002 look far more pessimistic in relation to the previous quarter : thus, the balances are negative as before, although their absolute values are markedly lower than before. Thus, overall balance figure in this respect makes -24% (against -58% in the previous quarter); by ownership category, the figure look as follows: -29% (against -55% for I quarter) at public, -25% (against -59%, as in the previous expectation) at collective companies. At private companies the situation looks quite favourable in relation to the former, e.g. -14% (against -35%, e.g. expectation of recession, in the previous quarter). So, there should be expected a new downswing in the output and sales of cattle-breeding sub-sector over II quarter 2002. 38% of the respondents in I quarter expect downward trend in own financial performance during the next 3 months (this makes 26 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter). Although this time as many as 14% of the respondents expect more favourable financial performance in the forthcoming quarter (against 6% in the previous quarter).

In view of radical reforms in agrarian sector is hard to say anything certain about overall economic conditions in agriculture in the forthcoming period. However, the findings obtained from the survey, at least, give the grounds not to expect anything worse than ever before.

In course of this survey the respondents shared their opinions, comments and propositions, most of which didn't differ much from those expressed before. Thus, according to the respondents, it's necessary to take the following measures:

• to cut the tariffs on fuels, lubricants and fertilisers;
• to abrogate amortisation tax;
• to increase producer prices;
• to ban barter;
• to revise taxation system so as to reduce taxes;
• to cut prices on agricultural machines and equipment;
• to adopt private ownership in the sector,
• to set up business conditions in favour of the Ukrainian producer;
• to cut interest rates on bank loans;
• to subsidise production of principal product groups in the sector,
• to set up parity of prices on agricultural and industrial products consumed by the sector;
• to cut prices of industrial products meant for agroproducers, including modules and parts for agromachinery;
• to supply agromachines on leasing conditions,
• to grant loans from budgetary sources exempt from interest;
• to take steps so as to make the sector businesses safe from switching electricity off;
• to support the sector during the period of field work in spring.

The problems referred to are added by uncertainty with a new status of the sector afrer restructuring of agricultural enterprises.


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